Bernstein Says Clarity Act Failure Puts Rulemaking With SEC and CFTC

Bernstein analysts said the Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act shifts the next phase of U.S. crypto regulation toward the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to The Block.

Gautam Chhugani, the lead analyst, wrote that the agencies are expected to pursue “specific rule-making” that will be “aggressive and swift.” Bernstein highlighted sectors that may see scrutiny, namely how native crypto tokens are categorized, safeguards surrounding DeFi and self-custody infrastructure, plus standards governing equity tokenization. The note also pointed to potential faster approvals for real-world-asset perpetual futures and coordination between the agencies on single-stock perpetuals.

StoneX Financial analysts, led by Mark Palmer, said the bill is dead for this Congress, noting only 14 working days remain in the Senate before campaign season. They cited Sen. Cynthia Lummis’s comment that lawmakers likely will not return to the Clarity Act before 2030. Polymarket odds for the bill passing in 2026 had dropped from 82% in February to 16% before the vote.

The failed legislation leaves the stablecoin rewards framework unchanged. The proposed text would have barred compensation on dormant stablecoin balances and linked such incentives to customer activity. In its absence, platforms such as Coinbase can continue offering rewards on idle balances. StoneX analysts observed that the OCC and FDIC have drafted regulations that may treat an issuer as breaching the GENIUS Act’s yield restrictions if it compensates an affiliate which subsequently rewards stablecoin holders. This matter may face judicial review once GENIUS takes effect in January 2027.