ECB wage tracker shows 2.7% growth in first half of 2027

The European Central Bank (ECB) reported on 16 September 2026 that its wage tracker points to 2.7% negotiated wage growth for the first half of 2027. The central bank refreshed its dataset with agreements signed by the end of August 2026 and lengthened the projection period to June 2027.

The headline figure is 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027, drawing on employee coverage of 32.5%. It rises to 2.8% in the second quarter of 2027, with coverage of 25.1%. Coverage for the first half of 2027 is still low at 28.8%, but it is expected to grow steadily as further deals are signed.

For the full year 2026, the indicator that accounts for smoothed one-off payments shows 2.2%, based on 46.9% coverage in participating countries. The weaker reading for the first half of 2026 results from the absence of repeat one-off bonuses granted in the second half of 2024; this distortion clears by the end of 2026.

When one-off payments are not smoothed, the tracker fell from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. Excluding one-off payments entirely, the average rate for 2026 also sits at 2.6%. The forward-looking portion of the tracker is not a forecast, as it relies solely on data from active bargaining agreements.