Zcash breaks out as 10-year yield tops 2007 close

The Federal Reserve voted 12-0 on Wednesday to lift its target range to 3.75%–4.00%, according to the central bank’s statement. It was the first increase since July 2023. The committee’s median projection now places the rate at 4.1% by the end of 2026, up from 3.8% in June.

Bitcoin’s reaction to the decision was immediate but short-lived. Coinbase data shows the price spiked to $76,499.99 five minutes after the release, only to fall back to $75,725.11 ten minutes later. By the end of the day, Bitcoin last changed hands at $75,928, a 0.6% gain over 24 hours but a 2.7% drop over the week.

Zcash was the outlier in the crypto market. The token saw trading peak at $1,383.30 before settling at $1,320.12, reflecting an 18.9% rise backed by $2.19 billion in turnover. This marked a breakout above the $1,297.77 high set on Sept. 9. CoinGecko records show ZEC remains 58.6% below its October 2016 launch price of $3,191.93, though its $22.39 billion market value now ranks it tenth overall.

A rate hike traditionally pressures risk assets, but the 10-year par yield closed at 5.01%, its highest since July 19, 2007, when it settled at 5.04%, according to Treasury data. Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, noted the divergence in a commentary sent Wednesday morning.

"Most major banks are forecasting a 25 basis point hike today and 50 basis points until year end. If it arrives without signalling a more aggressive path than markets have already priced in, that is the clearest path to a relief rally across risk assets, which includes Bitcoin and gold," Cobeljic said.

Polymarket traders priced the probability of no change at the next meeting, scheduled for Oct. 27-28, at 60.5%. The market for a quarter-point increase sat at 39%, a 2.5 point increase on the day, on $3.58 million of volume.