Anthropic IPO bets hit record as pre-stock futures near $80 million

The headline story about Anthropic’s potential $2 trillion IPO is happening in a market most public investors cannot see. Open interest in futures linked to the company has climbed to about $79.27 million, close to a record $80 million, according to data reported by CryptoSlate.

Traders are using pre-IPO perpetuals to speculate on a valuation that has not been officially set. These cash-settled contracts do not represent actual Anthropic stock, and the company remains privately held. CoinGlass data showed the ANTHROPIC pre-stock contract trading around $2,147, with more than $20 million changing hands in futures over a 24-hour period.

Binance has emerged as the largest venue for this activity, accounting for roughly 40% of the trade. The broader market for pre-IPO perpetuals in Anthropic and OpenAI surpassed $160 million this month, up from roughly $1 million in April, Binance Research said. These two companies accounted for about 95% of pre-IPO perpetual volume during the first 14 days of September.

CryptoSlate noted that open interest across Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO perpetuals surpassed $160 million this month, up from roughly $1 million in April and 179% from a month earlier, according to Binance Research. Positions in futures linked to the Claude developer have climbed to about $79.27 million, approaching a record $80 million, as traders prepare for what could become one of the largest initial public offerings ever attempted. However, the growth in notional value of outstanding positions does not, by itself, prove that market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, CryptoSlate stated.

The situation will change when Anthropic makes its registration documents public. At that point, traders can compare the assumptions embedded in pre-IPO contracts with the revenue, costs, and risks the company presents to prospective shareholders.

Circle Chief Executive Jeremy Allaire has urged the company to go public, stating, “Take the leap, Anthropic.” Allaire argued that going public imposes audited financial reporting and other controls that make a company easier to evaluate. Anthropic is now approaching the public markets from two directions, with traditional investors waiting for its prospectus and crypto traders already building a continuously traded reference price.