Bernstein raises prediction market forecast to $10T by 2035

Bernstein’s projection for prediction-market volume has jumped to $10 trillion annually by 2035, up from the $1 trillion by 2030 it set in April. The revision, attributed by the source to the bank’s note, rests on a structural shift: financial-asset contracts are expected to grow from 12% of volume to 49%, overtaking sports for the first time.

Kalshi data confirms the structural shift. Commodity trading on the platform reached "roughly $590 million so far in 2026, including $410 million in August alone" per fact:F7, up from under $2 million in 2025. Crypto's share of Kalshi volume also surged from under 5% in January to about 20% by August, per fact:F6.

“We’re already seeing other categories like crypto taking a disproportionate share,” Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev told CNBC. “I think within a few years, sports will actually be in the minority, similar to active trading at large.”

Pew Research Center reported in May 2026 that trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket has increased dramatically since mid-2025. The Block analyzed that combined monthly volume for the two platforms reached $44.8 billion in June 2026, exceeding the $14 billion average monthly handle of legal U.S. sports books in 2025. Bernstein noted in fact:F11 that firm regulatory clarity for U.S. sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027 or 2028 due to conflicting court rulings. Additionally, Multistate reported that Tennessee lawmakers are scheduled to hear TN HB 2079 and TN SB 1992, which would criminalize conduct intended to influence event outcomes for those benefiting from prediction market contracts.