Bitcoin Correlations Collapse Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin has ceased tracking the U.S. Dollar Index and major stock benchmarks as the Federal Reserve prepares its interest rate decision.

The asset was quoted at $75,755.30 for September 16, 2026. Data from CoinMarketCap show the short-window correlation with the dollar index has fallen to +0.08, down from -0.54 over the past 30 days. Alice Liu, head of research at CoinMarketCap, supplied the figures in a note to CoinDesk.

Liu stated: “Bitcoin’s short-window [15-day or less] correlation to the dollar index sits at +0.08, versus -0.54 over the past 30 days. Its correlation to the S&P 500 has fallen to 0.43 from 0.75 yesterday, to the Nasdaq to 0.30 from 0.60 yesterday, and to gold to 0.28 from 0.69 over 30 days.”

The shift follows the rejection of the Clarity Act in the Senate on Tuesday. Liu added: “That means the beta hedge that would have worked Monday is unreliable today, and today’s FOMC reaction may be swamped by regulatory follow-through.”

The Fed decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET. Traders broadly anticipate a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark rate. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5% ahead of the announcement. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at The FxPro, noted: "The market lull can easily be attributed to expectations of signals from the Fed later on Wednesday, which have greater potential to influence volatility than the 25-basis-point rate hike already priced in."