Bitcoin traders price near-certain Fed hike, brace for surprise hold

According to CoinDesk, traders are bracing for a Federal Reserve rate hike, even though positioning data implies a surprise hold might be more dangerous. Market data indicates markets are pricing a 92.5% chance that the Fed raises rates on Wednesday.

Roughly $76,000 and $80,000 have formed a range where bitcoin has been trapped for the last 24 days. Talos data reveals a 28% net buying tilt toward stablecoins before the session, versus a typical 8% selling tilt near past FOMC events. Bitcoin purchase confidence has slid to 3% down from 10%, and ether demand has dipped to 9% from 23%.

Chris Sullivan of Hyperion Decimus remarked, “The bond market has done its job and fully priced in tomorrow’s hike.” He observed that missing the hike would make investors question what policymakers perceive that markets do not.

Cooper Duschang, a research analyst at Talos, contributed, “The clearest shift has been into stablecoins,” adding that investors seem to be “reducing risk and holding greater liquidity ahead of the Fed.”