Fed Hike Odds and BOJ Rate Hike Follow SEC Tokenization Move

The macro picture shifted on Tuesday as Polymarket traders priced the probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting at 56.5%. This represents a significant shift from the 46.5% probability recorded on Thursday. The move reflects broader market positioning, where crypto derivatives are pricing strongly for short-term upside despite recent hawkish signals from the Fed.

A 7-2 vote saw the Bank of Japan lift its uncollateralized overnight call rate guideline to around 1.25%. This decision adds to the macroeconomic complexity facing traders, who are simultaneously navigating equity tokenization rules and central bank policy shifts in major economies.

These policy moves occurred against a backdrop of regulatory changes in the tokenization sector. Bitcoin touched $81,000, its highest level since Sept. 4, as tokenization-related assets rallied one day after the Securities and Exchange Commission cleared the trade. NEAR Protocol jumped 32% and Uniswap’s UNI token gained 35% over the week.

The rally followed the SEC’s issuance of a five-year conditional exemption for Tokenized Securities Venues. The order, identified as Release No. 34-106402, removes such venues from the exchange definition in Section 3(a)(1) of the Securities Exchange Act. The rule allows these venues to list 75 Tier 1 symbols but restricts trading to up to 0.25% of each stock's prior-month average daily volume.

Andrew Yang, an analyst at Kaiko, noted that tokenized equity volume on Uniswap currently stands at about $800 million a day. He stated, "The SEC's condition is rights parity with the underlying stock, and it's not obvious how much of that volume would clear it."

Uniswap has already listed tokenized equities across its web app and API, with the protocol reporting that $9.1 billion had been swapped in real-world asset pools as of June 12. The 0.25% limit determines the maximum liquidity available for these digital assets, creating a distinct constraint on the current flow of volume.