William Blair sees Coinbase, Circle poised for crypto recovery

The Block reported that William Blair analysts see Coinbase and Circle shares positioned for a recovery in the crypto market, citing stabilizing financial estimates and growth in diversified revenue streams.

Analysts led by Andrew W. Jeffrey cut their 2026 EBITDA estimate for Coinbase by 11% to $810 million, leaving projections for 2027 and 2028 roughly unchanged. They argued that estimates may be nearing a trough. Coinbase shares have gained 31% since July 14, while Circle stock has climbed 52% from the bottom set by bitcoin in early July.

The firm’s note to clients characterized the "Everything Exchange" label as a sign of broadened business activities, highlighting the addition of institutional and retail derivatives along with prediction markets. In Q1, retail derivatives brought in approximately $200 million in annualized income, whereas prediction markets hit $100 million in Q2. Collectively, these units represent about 6% of the estimated 2026 revenue base. Additionally, the total value of tokenized real-world assets expanded to $39 billion, up from $26 billion at the close of 2025.

Regarding Circle, the analysts view bitcoin as the primary near-term catalyst for valuation. They anticipate USDC’s market capitalization will track bitcoin upward, possibly after a delay, and identify USDC expansion as the likely driver for the next phase of Circle’s growth.